via In to the Breach
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Left to Right- Martino, Krass, Schwartz, Leggman, Berkowitz, Dubue' |
Number 1: Conservatives Are RAAACIST homophobic Islamaphobic xenophobic misogynists. No commas, probably should use hyphens, though, as that’s the breathless, said-as-one-word description of us that they have in their tiny little brains. Wrapped up in this, of course, is the sense that we are drooling idiots who hate everyone who is unlike ourselves, toothless rednecks who shoot “others” on sight, a Bible-thumping God Squad intent on white supremacist isolationism. And they believe it. The “nuance” crowd, our supposed intellectual betters, have zero problem painting with broad brush every single conservative (though of course they are loathe to be so-stereotyped themselves).
I’ve thought about this post a lot, knowing it was coming, and have contemplated how I’ll approach it (a Fuzzy Rant seems so obviously in order, ya know?). I settled on a focus on the mindset behind it rather than debunking (yet again) the idiocy of this belief. After all, we know that we are not any of those things, with the possible exception of being Islamaphobic (that old “it’s not paranoia if ‘they’ really are out to get you” saw may be applicable here). But it’s hardly going to be a complete post without at least mentioning the flaws on the face of that assumption, right?
Before I do that, though, I want to take a few moments (paragraphs) to examine leftist “thought.......”
"I am not much of a poll watcher until after the debates when the candidates have had their last big shot at appealing to voters. The winner and loser does not usually become solidified until then. There is no point in paying much attention to polling prior to the debates accept to analyze the successes and failures of the respective campaigns. Even that is more of a concern for the campaigns themselves, but the polls around this time can show candidates’ supporters which way they need to prod their guy towards victory.
For whatever influence said supporters actually have. I am in deep red South Carolina where Mitt Romney cannot lose and Barack Obama cannot win. Neither one o them cares what anyone in the palmetto state thinks. Perhaps you are in the same bright red or blue situation. The circumstances do give you a certain distance from the election as a whole. The primaries are the last close up glimpse of the presidential race we get remember Newt Gingrich running away with South Carolina/ That was a long time ago. With that in mind, appreciate high emotions regarding the campaign have given way to detached observation of reality in everything else I am going to write here.
Embrace the fact that polls are largely accurate. Romney and Obama are virtually tied in the national polls. National polls are a soft indicator, however. It is the swing state polls that really matter in a relatively even matched election like this one, and those show Obama with an advantage. Stop claiming that the methodology is biased or looking at ’alternate polls that show who really is in the lead.....look at the facts instead."Read the Rest
"Taxpayers spent $1.4 billion dollars on everything from staffing, housing, flying and entertaining President Obama and his family last year, according to the author of a new book on taxpayer-funded presidential perks."
"In comparison, British taxpayers spent just $57.8 million on the royal family...."Gray also says taxpayer dollars are subsidizing Obama’s re-election effort when he uses Air Force One to jet across the country campaigning.
"When the trip is deemed political, it’s customary for the president to pay the equivalent of a first class commercial ticket for certain passengers. But Gray says that hardly covers the taxpayer cost of flying the president and his staffers around on Air Force One.
“When the United States’ billion-dollar air armada is being used politically, is it fair to taxpayers that we only be reimbursed by the president's campaign committee for the value of one first-class commercial ticket for each passenger who is deemed aboard ‘for political purposes?’” Gray asks in the book......Read More Here
"Doing this to us too, eh Mr. President?" |
"Professors Ken Bickers and Michael Berry, of the University of Colorado, have a system for predicting the Electoral College outcomes of presidential races. Their model has accurately forecast the winner of every presidential race since 1980. According to an article published by UC-Boulder, they even got the Perot-flavored election of 1992, and the Bush-Gore photo finish in 2000, right.
This year, the Bickers-Berry model shows Mitt Romney winning with 320 electoral votes to Obama’s 218, with a 20-vote margin of error. A popular vote margin of 53-47 percent in Romney’s favor is predicted.
The Bickers-Berry model draws upon a wide range of state and national economic data, rather than collating public opinion polls. It anticipates little lasting effect from factors such as the location of the party conventions, the vice-president’s home state, the party affiliation of state governors, or – according to Bickers – “gaffes, political commercials, or day-to-day campaign tactics.” He finds the focus of voters upon big issues “heartening for our democracy.”
The Associated Press notes that “the model does not account for sudden changes in the economy or unexpected developments in states split 50-50.” There appear to be quite a few states fitting that definition at the moment. The Bickers-Berry model has Obama losing almost every swing state, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida.
Interestingly, the model predicts different partisan effects for two key economic factors: “Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income.” That’s obviously not good news for President Obama, who has made double-digit unemployment a permanent feature of the American landscape.
The forecast that has Romney winning with 320 electoral votes is based on five-month-old economic data, with an update planned for late September. Maybe Romney will do even better, when even more dismal Obama economic data is plugged into the Bickers-Berry model.
On the other hand, the professors note that it’s hard to predict if the public will judge the economy in “absolute” or “relative” terms – in other words, will they consider the totality of the Obama record, or will they accept a possible uptick in a few key indicators during October as encouraging signs that the President is turning around?"