So Trump is Winning the Polls. It's All Meaningless at This Point

This weekend, I spent time with a fairly large group of Republican friends. Of course Donald Trump was discussed quite a bit. The one thing I walked away with was this: people strongly agree with what Trump is saying. But, it's Donald Trump saying it. 

Translation: Trump's support is a mile wide, and an inch deep. Not one person I talked to said they would likely vote for him if the election was today. 

(In the spirit of full discloser, I was an official in the Jindal Gubernatorial campaign in 2007, and later, in a lesser capacity, for his reelection in 2011. I have since parted ways  philosophically with the good Governor after his privatization of the states 80 year old state charity and teaching hospital system, which guaranteed every Louisiana citizen basic health-care. His refusal to expand Medicaid forced hundreds of thousand of unemployed and under-employed into Obamacare plans they cannot afford.)

While I have much respect for Bobby Jindal, I Do Not support his Presidential Campaign.

But back to Mr. Trump and the polls:

from FiveThirtyEight:

Twelve years ago, in August 2003, Joe Lieberman led in most polls of the Democratic primary. Eight years ago, in August 2007, Rudy Giuliani maintained a clear lead in polls of Republicans, while Hillary Clinton led in polls of the Democratic nomination contest. Four years ago, in August 2011, Mitt Romney began with the lead in polls of Republican voters, but he would be surpassed by the end of the month by Rick Perry, the first of four Republican rivals who would at some point overtake Romney in national polling averages.

Lieberman, Clinton, Giuliani and Perry, as you’ve probably gathered, are not the faces atop Mount Rushmore. Only Clinton came close to winning the nomination.

But the problem isn’t just that the national polls at this stage in the race lack empirical power to predict the nomination; it’s also that they describe a fiction. 

I don’t mean to suggest that Donald Trump’s support in the polls is “fake.” I have no doubt that some people really love him or that he’d be the favorite if you held a national, winner-take-all Republican primary tomorrow. However, the “election” these polls describe is hypothetical in at least five ways: 

* They contemplate a vote today, but we’re currently 174 days from the Iowa caucuses. 

* They contemplate a national primary, but states vote one at a time or in small groups. 

* They contemplate a race with 17 candidates, but several candidates will drop out before Iowa and several more will drop out before the other states vote. 

* They contemplate a winner-take-all vote, but most states are not winner-take-all. 

* They contemplate a vote among all Republican-leaning registered voters or adults, but in fact only a small fraction of them will turn out for primaries and caucuses.

This is why it’s exasperating that the media has become obsessed with how Trump is performing in these polls. 

So you should ignore those national polls entirely? In a literal sense, they do have some correlation with election outcomes: Even this far out, a candidate near the top of the polls is a somewhat better bet to win the nomination than one near the bottom. But that’s like projecting a major league pitcher’s numbers from high school stats: 

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You Can Take the Girl Outta the Ghetto, But......

Obama Staffer Arrested after Firing Gun at Her Booty Call. 

When Booty Calls:  Barvetta Singletary

CNN - A White House staffer was arrested Friday on charges of assault and reckless endangerment after allegedly threatening and shooting at a Capitol Hill police officer with whom she had been having sex, according to arrest records.

Barvetta Singletary, a special assistant to the President and House legislative affairs liaison, has been placed on unpaid leave and had her access to the White House revoked, a White House spokesperson told CNN on Monday.

Singletary was released Monday from jail in Prince George's County, Maryland, after posting a $75,000 bond, according to spokesman John Erzen of Maryland's state's attorney's office.

The incident began early Friday morning after Singletary texted the officer "asking him to come to her residence...for sexual intercourse," according to charging documents, which classified the incident as domestic violence.

After "a brief sexual encounter," Singletary began asking the officer about another woman he was dating and tried to access his cell phones.

Singletary then grabbed the officer's service weapon from a bag and pointed it at him, before firing one round toward him.

A Good Monday Morning

My Beautiful Back Yard

 A lone fisherman in the morning mist among Spanish moss and Cypress trees
of Caddo Lake, the Texas/Louisiana border - by Ralph Crane 1965.  

The Injudicious Defense of Donald Trump

The Only Question That Should Have Been Asked of Donald Trump Thursday Night is "Are You Done Evolving?"

CND

Whatever Trump-followers call themselves (Trumpanistas, Trump Troops, Trumpsters, etc) they are aggressive in their defense of the billionaire celebrity presidential candidate. Why? Most say they idolize Trump because he is strong, stands up for his principles, is a great business man and tells it like it is. Why then do Donald’s supporters feel the need to ardently attack anyone that disagrees with him? 

They believe he won the debate on Thursday night and that he rightfully beat-down a moderator for asking him “unfair” questions.  His supporters seem unwilling to see Trump vetted. Many of those same people were angry when the media failed to ask tough questions of candidate Obama. If they firmly believe that Trump is the best candidate for President, then having a moderator ask him some tough questions should not be an issue. If he’s elected .. the issues and questions won’t get easier and he won’t simply be able to call them names and make faces. 

Trump has flip-flopped on his liberal stances such as abortion, gun rights and much more. While conservatives were quick to question Obama or Clinton’s “evolving” on important issues, they readily accept Trump’s modifications on central ideals.  But, hypocrisy is what it is, no matter which side is doing it. 

Trump supporters point at easily-swayed online polls to claim Thursday's victory. Ron and Rand Paul saw similar huge online poll wins after debates due to their ardent, but small, armies of followers. It never amounted to much more than an also-ran in the nomination fight. Online polls don’t accurately reflect voter sentiment – probably because Americans don’t elect their politicians via social media – yet. When Trump’s top campaign advisor, Roger Stone, left the campaign Saturday, it was reportedly over Trump’s unwillingness to accept that online polls weren’t scientific – despite the evidence to the contrary – and his attacks on Megyn Kelly:  

Stone: “Donald, stop with the Megyn Kelly shit. It’s fucking crazy. It’s killing us.” 

Trump: “What do you mean? I won the debate. People loved it.” 

Stone: “You didn’t win the debate.” 

Trump: “Yes I did. Look at the polling. Look at Drudge.” 

Stone: “The Drudge Report poll isn’t a scientific poll. You won’t give me the money to pay for a scientific poll. And you’re off-message.” 

Donald seems unwilling to listen to anyone that disagrees with him – a narrow-minded approach at best, eerily reminiscent of Obama at worst. The exchange also shows that Trump does not want to know what internal polling might show him – the truth. Internal polls are scientific surveys paid for by campaigns so that campaign operations can understand how the voters are actually responding to their messages and actions. By not polling independently, Trump seems ready to run his campaign based on blog polls from every dark corner of the internet which has worked … never.  

To Trump’s credit, sure, Americans want the illegal immigration issue solved. Whether it’s by Trump’s big wall with a beautiful door or by fixing the catastrophic legal immigration system currently in-place and going after employers that hire illegals – it should be fixed. That isn’t even in the same zip code as allowing a prospective leader of the free world to act like a Jerry Springer guest every time someone asks him a tough question or otherwise slights him. 

A President smiles, nods and courteously rebuts the criticism. Name-calling and personal attacks are for reality T.V., the schoolyard and Barack Obama and his minions.  

Pentagon Forms First Transgender Military Unit

Officials Say US Special Forces Are Too White And Too Male 

Elite units in the military are by and large both white and male. The Pentagon considers this to be a problem. The Pentagon in general has made bolstering diversity a major priority in the last several years, with Defense Secretary Ash Carter leading the charge with public pronouncements about the benefits of a diverse force and a recent decision to review the ban on transgender servicemembers.

"...we must ensure that everyone who's able and willing to serve has the full and equal opportunity to do so. And we must treat all of our people with the dignity and respect they deserve. Going forward the Department of Defense must and will continue to improve how we do both." 

Members of the new elite Fabulous Fighting 69th Transgender Special Forces Unit known as the 'Screaming Green Meanies' train in battlefield explosives handling at secret base #5

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A Real Climate Scientist Demolishes Bill Nye

Bill Nye the Science Guy Mechanical Engineer

The Libertarian Republic

Global warming alarmist talking heads like Bill Nye, Neil deGrasse Tyson and Al Gore are constantly paraded around as experts on climate, often claiming that global warming is making weather more extreme and bashing those who “deny” that humans are the main culprit behind this.  So, Fox Business host John Stossel brought in an actual climate scientist,  Dr. Roy Spencer, a former NASA scientist who’s now a researcher at the University of Alabama in Huntsville,  to see just how truthful Nye, Tyson and Gore are being when they go on television to sound the alarm on global warming and advocate for phasing out fossil fuels.

“I’ve actually been doing climate science for the last 25 years and these guys haven’t. Unfortunately, Bill Nye has said some things that are just downright deceptive. He’s a mechanical engineer, but he could learn about stuff, and I’m afraid he hasn’t.”

Nye is often brought on by liberal media outlets to talk about global warming, and he often takes to social media whenever a storm occurs somewhere in the world to link it to global warming — despite a lack of evidence that weather has actually gotten more extreme. Nye has also consistently bashed those who are skeptical of man-made global warming, like Spencer, calling them “deniers.”

“I really resent the term, as do other skeptics because we don’t deny climate change — climate change has always occurred.  Most of us believe that humans have some role in that, but again, this plays well on TV and to certain audiences.”

“Now, Bill Nye can say things like, our recent Tropical Storm Bill — which occurred, by the way, during hurricane season, we do get tropical storms during hurricane season. Everything gets blamed on global warming now, even weather events, and it’s just gotten ridiculous and I don’t know how people can say these things with a straight face.”

Nye got lots of media attention for claiming that global warming was causing Tropical Storm Bill in the Gulf of Mexico and wildfires spreading through Alaska. Actual meteorologists, however, bashed Nye for his remarks. Spencer also criticized Al Gore for claiming that extreme weather events are 100 times more common today than they were in the mid-20th Century — a claim that is patently false. Yet, Gore will not debate skeptics about his global warming claims in the media.

“Which is bullshit,” Spencer remarked when asked about Gore’s weather claim. 

“Severe weather has not increased. Even the United Nations admits this. That there has not been any measurable increase in severe weather events around the world.”

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