Update: links have been fixed.
Presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton both had approval ratings close to, and even lower than the 45 percent level where Obama's popularity now stands, and both suffered big midterm setbacks in congressional elections. Both presidents went on to win re-election.
But unlike 1984 and 1996, things are dramatically different. Ronald Reagan was tough, an expert negotiator and was able to deal with Tip O'Neal, then Speaker of the House, to lower taxes and bring prosperity back to America. Bill Clinton, while maybe the kind of guy you would want to hang out with and have a beer, was as shady as Richard Nixon but a excellent campaigner and successful politician, in part because of the newly elected Republican House Speaker called his hand and presented him with the list of promises made to the people that helped usher in a republican controlled house in 1994. Clinton had the sense to sign the bills, and of course then take credit.
But Barack Obama is neither a great communicator nor the savvy politician his fore-mentioned predecessors were. Nor are the times similar. Obama took a bad situation and day by day has made it every increasingly worst, while ignoring the will of the people.
Can the former community organizer/ back bench junior Senator who charismatically fooled America into believing he was the answer to America's problems, get re-elected to the most powerful office in the land?
I found two very interesting points of view on this subject. It's going to be a very interesting 18 months till the election.
"Can President Obama be defeated in 2012? No. He can't. I am going on record as saying that President Barak Obama will win a second term. Nine percent unemployment? No problem. Obama will win. Gas prices moving toward five dollars a gallon? He still wins. The truth is, there simply are no conditions under which Barak Obama can be defeated in 2012.
Obama's re-election is really a very, very simple math problem."
Consider his 10 point presentation here No Matter What--Obama Wins in 2012.
President Obama will not be re-elected. Period. Why? Obamaflation has arrived, and this is what it looks like."
Milk. A gallon of skim. At the local Giant in Central Pennsylvania:
January 11, 2011: $3.20
February 28, 2011: $3.24
March 6, 2011: $3.34
April 23. 2011: $3.48
That would be a 28 cent rise in a mere 102 days, from January to April of this year. The third year of the Obama misadventure.
Then there's the celery. Same sized bag. Same store.
January 11, 2011: $1.99 a bag.
March 6, 2011: $2.49 a bag.
A rise of 50 cents in 54 days.
"WHAT SEEMS TO HAVE LEFT Obama strategists clueless is the fundamental historical fact that inflation comes slowly. Milk today, celery tomorrow, and gas almost every day. Then, too late, there's a collective gasp of recognition by Americans walking around the grocery store that it's no longer just the milk and the celery but the soup, the chicken, the hamburger and perhaps now critically -- the Excedrin."
"It is such moments that elect a Ronald Reagan in 1980."
Consider the following here Obamaflation Arrives.