Friday, September 4, 2015

Can Republicans Write Off the Hispanic Vote Like Democrats did White Voters?

by Don Surber
Democratic President Lyndon Johnson wrote off the white votes for his party in the 1960s as he found a way to get minority votes: Civil rights and socialism -- er, the Great Society. He won the white vote in 1964, which was the last time Democrats suceeded at that.
Liberal Republicans in Washington say they don't want to lose the Hispanic vote but have done nothing to court it. In fact, after allowing President Obama to reverse 60 years of Cuban policy, Republicans wrote off the Cuban-American vote.
But a new poll shows Republicans can win by not pandering to Hispanics or any other group.
From the ABC-Washington Post poll, we find Donald Trump's favorable/unfavorable numbers have improved in two months from negative 28 in July to negative 22. The gain came from white people who went from negative 11 on Trump to negative 1 today. His non-white numbers went from negative 57 to negative 62.
Hillary Clinton meanwhile went from positive 7 to negative 8 -- a 15-point drop. Among white people, she went from negative 16 to negative 31 -- a 15-point drop. Meanwhile, Jeb! Bush's sucking up to Hispanics isn't working. He lost support among Hispanics going from positive 15 to negative 3.
To recap, sucking up to minorities meant an overall drop in their favorables of 15 points for Hillary and 18 points for Jeb!
Trump pounded the border and saw a 6-point improvement.
Hillary now stands at 45% favorable, 53% unfavorable. Trump is at 37%-59% . Jeb! is at 38-55%.
Finally, the Hispanic vote is tricky. Over time, light-skinned Hispanics may begin to identify themselves as white and dark-skinned Hispanics may begin to identify themselves as black.
Just remember, Obama needed 43% of the white vote to win in 2008. If 95% of black people can vote Democratic and not be called racist, then the same should hold true for Republicans.
Of course, liberal Republicans control Congress which explains why Obama is having the best final two years in a presidency since FDR.