Has Trump Stalled in His Voter Percentage?
by Robert Janicki
"I've
previously posited that there will have to be a winnowing of Republican
presidential candidates before the real odds can be determined in the
GOP presidential nomination process. We have now had our first serious
campaign suspension as Jeb Bush withdrew his withering and failing
candidacy shortly after the South Carolina polls closed on Saturday
night.
Bush's withdrawal can only help Cruz and Rubio. It's difficult,
practically impossible, to believe that any Bush supporters would
migrate to Trump after what Trump has done to Jeb. That said, many of
Jeb's supporters may well jump to either Rubio or Cruz in an act of
defiance for Trump's shameless treatment and denigration of Bush.
As it stands now, the combined Cruz/Rubio voter percentage numbers are
greater than Trump's numbers. The question than becomes one of where
Trump will get the necessary votes in subsequent primary elections to
break through the voter percentage ceiling we have seen so far. The
only thing that the South Carolina primary has really demonstrated is
that Trump's floor has dropped in comparison to the cumulative numbers
of the other candidates. Trump has not increased the ceiling number in
his voting support.
The next primary in Nevada, without Jeb Bush, may be an indicator of
which direction Trump's voter base percentage is moving in relation to
the combined Cruz/Rubio percentage of voters. If the combined
Cruz/Rubio percentage of voters continues to grow, this could be a
serious blow to Trump's chances of garnering a majority of delegates
prior to the GOP convention.
All that said, the longer the other two GOP candidates, Carson and
Kasich, continue their very questionable candidacies, the advantage, if
there is much, goes to Trump, especially as the GOP campaign moves to
those states with winner take all rules in place by each state GOP
organization. This has to be Trump's plan to play off the other four
GOP candidates against each other as he racks up larger numbers of
delegates through the winner take all primaries.
It remains to be seen if Carson and Kasich will see the light and
suspend their candidacies before the important "winner take all"
primaries. Failure to do so will only enhance Donald Trump's strength
in delegate numbers and could actually push him over the magic number of
1237 delegates necessary to win the GOP nomination outright before the
Republican convention in July.
Will the Republicans coalesce around one candidate to meet Trump head to
head? Only time will tell, but the longer that Trump can string out
the infighting among the remaining four Republicans, the greater his
chances to win the GOP nomination."
Originally Posted at Righting on the Wall
